788
ACUS48 KWNS 040840
SWOD48
SPC AC 040839
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 AM CDT SAT OCT 04 2025
VALID 071200Z - 121200Z
..DISCUSSION
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST COAST AND DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD IN THE MID-SOUTH/TN VALLEY AREA EARLY THE FORECAST PERIOD
(AROUND DAYS 4-5/TUE-WED). SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
TO BE LOW AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES GIVEN LIMITED DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (DAYS 6-8/THU-SAT) BECOMES
MORE UNCERTAIN AS SPREAD AMONG FORECAST GUIDANCE INCREASES
CONSIDERABLY. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE
PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TOWARD THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER
TROUGH MAY DEVELOP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS,
BUT DETAILS REGARDING TIMING AND SPATIAL EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE
VARY CONSIDERABLY, RESULTING IN LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
..LEITMAN.. 10/04/2025
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