679
ACUS03 KWNS 041930
SWODY3
SPC AC 041929
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 PM CDT SAT OCT 04 2025
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW ON
MONDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
A DEEP MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS ON MONDAY. A SERIES OF
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THIS TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION, MODEST LOW/MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND
SOME DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL CORRIDOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SEPARATE ZONE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH
VALLEY, IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND A LOW-AMPLITUDE
MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT MAY EMERGE FROM THE GULF.
IN GENERAL, WEAK INSTABILITY AND ONLY MODEST DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR
NEAR THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT ORGANIZED-SEVERE POTENTIAL. ONE
EXCEPTION MAY BE FROM PARTS OF EASTERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE,
WHERE POST-FRONTAL EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN VEERING
WIND PROFILES, SOMEWHAT ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS, AND SOME STRONG-STORM
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS POST-FRONTAL REGIME.
ANOTHER EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES, WHERE
SOMEWHAT STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FLOW MAY OVERSPREAD THE FRONT, BUT MOST
GUIDANCE ONLY SUGGESTS VERY WEAK DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS AREA
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
..DEAN.. 10/04/2025
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