219  
FNUS22 KWNS 042001  
FWDDY2  
 
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0300 PM CDT SAT OCT 04 2025  
 
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z  
   
..MIDWEST/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES  
 
BROAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF NORTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT  
AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST  
AND GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY. DRIER AIR ALOFT AT THE 800-700 MB  
LEVEL WILL BE USHERED INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT  
LAKES REGION. LIMITED HIGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD STILL SUPPORT A  
FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ENVIRONMENT RESULTING IN RH FALLING  
TO AS LOW AS 20% ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN IA, NORTHERN IL AND  
NORTHWESTERN IN. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WILL COMBINE  
WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS AND DROUGHT STRESSED FUELS TO PROMOTE AN  
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.  
 
..WILLIAMS.. 10/04/2025  
   
PREV DISCUSSION  
/ISSUED 0146 AM CDT SAT OCT 04 2025/  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
 
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO LIFT  
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO  
INTENSIFY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP  
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH WETTING RAINFALL LIKELY ALONG  
AND BEHIND IT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, CONTINUED WARM/DRY CONDITIONS ARE  
LIKELY OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST WHERE ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER  
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  
   
..MIDWEST  
 
ONGOING FLASH DROUGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO  
SUPPORT DRYING FINE FUELS THIS WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY WARM  
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 15-25 MPH DURING  
THE AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT A FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED ELEVATED  
CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA INTO NORTHWESTERN  
IL. HERE, DEEP MIXING SHOULD LIMIT RETURNING SURFACE MOISTURE WHILE  
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TRAILING  
THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER NORTH.  
   
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS  
 
ALONG A TRAILING LEE TROUGH, BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY  
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE  
NOT WIDESPREAD, WARM TEMPERATURES AND DOWNSLOPING SHOULD SUPPORT RH  
VALUES BELOW 30% ON AN ISOLATED BASIS. THE FAVORABLE RH AND INCREASE  
IN WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER  
CONDITIONS GIVEN INCREASINGLY DRY FINE FUELS.  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT  
 
 
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