508  
ACUS01 KWNS 050032  
SWODY1  
SPC AC 050030  
 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0730 PM CDT SAT OCT 04 2025  
 
VALID 050100Z - 051200Z  
 
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS/HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
AND NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT.  
   
..01Z UPDATE
 
 
LEADING EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT IS SPREADING ACROSS THE HIGH  
PLAINS FROM WESTERN SD-NE PANHANDLE-NORTHEAST CO. IN RESPONSE, A  
BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION HAS MATURED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. OVER THE  
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, 500MB SPEED MAX SHOULD INTENSIFY AND TRANSLATE  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER RED RIVER REGION BY  
THE END OF THE PERIOD. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A  
MARKED INCREASE IN LLJ AS THIS SPEED MAX/MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SHIFT  
DOWNSTREAM. VAD WINDS SUPPORT THIS WITH 45KT 1KM FLOW CURRENTLY  
NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL NE INTO EASTERN SD. WITH TIME LOW-LEVEL WARM  
ADVECTION SHOULD ENCOURAGE ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG THE COOL SIDE  
OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD  
PRODUCE HAIL AS LARGE AS 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.  
 
..DARROW.. 10/05/2025  
 

 
 
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