305
ACUS02 KWNS 050535
SWODY2
SPC AC 050533
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT SUN OCT 05 2025
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW ON
MONDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
A MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL MIGRATE EAST OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES VICINITY. ANY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY LAG BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM LOWER MI SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL KS AT MIDDAY. THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, BECOMING
ORIENTED FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MI INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WHILE
A MID 50S TO LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED BY POOR LAPSE RATES, CLOUD
COVER AND AREAS OF ONGOING CONVECTION. WHILE SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON, THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY GIVEN
BOUNDARY-PARALLEL DEEP LAYER FLOW AND LIMITED LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT/SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST
TO THE SOUTH IN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION REGIME
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED NEAR FL.
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
..LEITMAN.. 10/05/2025
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