284
FNUS21 KWNS 050659
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 AM CDT SUN OCT 05 2025
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
..SYNOPSIS
A MATURE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST
TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVERSPREADING THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG LOW IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH WETTING RAINFALL LIKELY ALONG AND BEHIND IT. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, CONTINUED WARM/DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST WHERE ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
..MIDWEST
AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH, A BROAD AREA OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED OVER
PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. AFTERNOON WINDS OF 15-20 MPH
WILL BE COMMON AS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT IS MIXED TOWARD THE SURFACE.
MODEST SURFACE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE TRAILING FRONT SHOULD
MIX AS DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A FEW HOURS OF LOW RH (20-30%) THIS AFTERNOON FROM PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IA INTO NORTHERN IL AND IN. GIVEN THE VERY DRY FUELS, A FEW
HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
ALONG AND EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH, GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO EASTERN NM AND WESTERN
KS. WARM TEMPERATURES AND DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES SHOULD SUPPORT RH
VALUES BELOW 30% THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE FAVORABLE RH AND
INCREASE IN WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LOCALLY
ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS GIVEN INCREASINGLY DRY FINE FUELS.
..LYONS.. 10/05/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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