818
ACUS48 KWNS 050818
SWOD48
SPC AC 050816
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 AM CDT SUN OCT 05 2025
VALID 081200Z - 131200Z
..DISCUSSION
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDWEST AND EASTERN U.S. BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON DAY
4-5/WED-THU. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, AND WITH THE COLD FRONT DEVELOPING SOUTH TOWARD THE GULF
COAST STATES, CONTINENTAL LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES EAST OF THE MS WILL
RESULT IN A MOSTLY STABLE AIRMASS.
SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE AS SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
HOWEVER, SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW AS ANY STRONG LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN DISPLACED FROM
BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.
..LEITMAN.. 10/05/2025
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