068
ACUS02 KWNS 051703
SWODY2
SPC AC 051701
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 PM CDT SUN OCT 05 2025
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LOW ON MONDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS CANADA ON
MONDAY, WITH THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT FROM
THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SOUTH OF THIS
FEATURE, A WEAKENING POSITIVE-TILT WAVE WILL EXTEND INTO THE GREAT
BASIN, WITH A BELT OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT FROM CO INTO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND PLAINS, WITH ANOTHER STRONG HIGH AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
EASTERN STATES. IN BETWEEN THESE ANTICYCLONES, A RELATIVE SURFACE
TROUGH AND WIND SHIFT WILL EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM NORTHERN LOWER MI
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO KS AND TOWARD THE TX PANHANDLE AT MIDDAY, MAKING
MINIMAL EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
..FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO LOWER MI
ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE BOUNDARY, SURFACE HEATING ALONG WITH
DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 60S F WILL LEAD TO A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH SBCAPE AVERAGING 500 TO 1000 J/KG, WITH SIMILAR
ELEVATED MUCAPE VALUES ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. EFFECTIVE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR BELOW 30 KT, WITH
BOUNDARY-PARALLEL FLOW.
A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST
NM IN TO NORTHWEST OK WHERE HEATING WILL BE STRONG. HOWEVER, WARM
PROFILES ALOFT SUGGEST MINIMAL HAIL POTENTIAL. A FEW STRONGER CELLS
WITH STRONG GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR FROM NORTHERN IL INTO LOWER MI, BUT
MEAGER CAPE PROFILES SUGGEST MINIMAL SEVERE RISK.
..JEWELL.. 10/05/2025
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page