957
ACUS11 KWNS 052051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052050
NEZ000-KSZ000-052315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2137
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 PM CDT SUN OCT 05 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 052050Z - 052315Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL OR WIND
REPORTS MAY OCCUR, A WATCH IS NOT LIKELY.
DISCUSSION...A SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA, WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS DENOTED BEHIND/NORTH OF THE
FRONT. ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT, THE AIRMASS HAS BECOME
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN POOR
ACROSS THE REGION, SO THE BULK OF THE CURRENT INSTABILITY IS DRIVEN
BY DIURNAL HEATING OF A SOMEWHAT MOIST AIRMASS (DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 55F AND 60F) AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THIS IS EVIDENT BY AN INCREASE IN CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
THE EXPECTATION IS THAT A COMBINATION OF WEAK WARM-AIR ADVECTION
BETWEEN 850-700 MILLIBARS, CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT, A LITTLE BIT
MORE SURFACE HEATING, AND (LATER) AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
RESULT IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS ALONG THE
LENGTH OF THE FRONT IN KANSAS. EFFECTIVE-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES IN
EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION,
WITH PERHAPS EVEN TRANSIENT SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS OCCURRING.
HOWEVER, POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
PARCEL ACCELERATION UPWARD AND TEMPER THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.
THAT SAID, SEVERE HAIL OR WIND REPORTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS, ESPECIALLY THOSE BEFORE SUNSET.
WITH TIME THIS EVENING, THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET. THESE STORMS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ROOTED IN THE 850-700 MILLIBAR LAYER AND MAY INITIALLY
POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL OR WIND BEFORE EITHER MOVING ACROSS THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE COOL SIDE OR THE CAPE RESERVOIR IS DEPLETED
ON THE WARM SIDE.
GIVEN THE OVERALL LIMITED SPACE AND TIME NATURE OF THE SEVERE
THREAT, A WATCH IS NOT LIKELY.
..MARSH/GLEASON.. 10/05/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 37240006 37180104 37720155 38750032 40389764 40739660
40569606 40199593 38069883 37240006
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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