438
ACUS02 KWNS 060512
SWODY2
SPC AC 060510
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 AM CDT MON OCT 06 2025
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
..SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE OH VALLEY
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY, CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN LOWER
MI TOWARD CENTRAL TX DURING THE MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, POSITIONED FROM NEW
ENGLAND TOWARD THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTH TX.
A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S F COMMON
FROM CENTRAL TX INTO THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS. THIS WILL AID IN
POCKETS OF MODEST DESTABILIZATION (500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE). HOWEVER,
STRONGER DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO POOR LAPSE RATES,
CLOUD COVER, AND AREAS OF ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. WHILE EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES UP TO 30
KT ARE EXPECTED, DEEP LAYER FLOW PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL FAVOR LINE SEGMENTS. WHERE STRONGER DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR,
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE LOWER OH VALLEY VICINITY, ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS
COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STRONGER CELLS/LINE SEGMENTS.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN A POST-FRONTAL REGIME ACROSS NM
INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLE VICINITY. DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL BE WEAKER
HERE, AND LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MODEST, LIMITING
SEVERE POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS, GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL
COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CELLS, BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS
LOW.
..LEITMAN.. 10/06/2025
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