518
ACUS48 KWNS 060808
SWOD48
SPC AC 060806
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 AM CDT MON OCT 06 2025
VALID 091200Z - 141200Z
..DISCUSSION
UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST DAY
5/FRI, WHILE UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS WILL
PRECLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DUE TO A MAINLY DRY AND
STABLE AIRMASS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
BY DAY 6/SAT AND BEYOND, MOST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN, WITH ONE OR MORE UPPER TROUGHS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WEST AND INTO THE PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS, SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING AND CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE
PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MEAGER GULF RETURN FLOW/INCREASING
MOISTURE. HOWEVER, SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS LOW GIVEN ANY MORE
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN LIKELY WILL STILL BE OFFSET FROM
STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FOCUSED OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS.
..LEITMAN.. 10/06/2025
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