219
ACUS11 KWNS 061043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061042
LAZ000-MSZ000-061215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2138
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0542 AM CDT MON OCT 06 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 061042Z - 061215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW ROTATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS.
DISCUSSION...MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS PUSHED INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND VICINITY WITH TROPICAL MID 70S DEWPOINTS PRESENT. IN
ADDITION, THE LOW-LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED TO AROUND 35 KNOTS PER
KHDC VWP. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A FEW SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE GULF COAST.
RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER/EFFECTIVE SHEAR,
BUT SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON RADAR OVER
THE PAST HOUR WITH 2 OBSERVED TDSS. THEREFORE, THE STRONGER SHEAR
BETWEEN THE LCL/EL (35 KNOTS) MUST BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME UPDRAFT
ROTATION. TRANSIENT ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND CLOCKWISE TURNING WINDS IN
THE LOWEST KM HAVE BEEN APPARENTLY SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW BRIEF
TORNADOES. IN ADDITION, THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER
THAN FORECAST BY MOST GUIDANCE. THIS LOW-LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST HOUR ON THE KHDC VWP AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING. GIVEN THE ALREADY BORDERLINE
ENVIRONMENT THESE SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN, EXPECT THIS
MODEST REDUCTION IN THE LOW-LEVEL JET TO BRING AN END TO THE THREAT
BY DAYBREAK.
..BENTLEY/MOSIER.. 10/06/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 29669092 30359099 30789079 31179030 31038983 30528974
30038971 29558979 29238995 29179034 29239067 29309078
29669092
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
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