163  
ACUS01 KWNS 061239  
SWODY1  
SPC AC 061238  
 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0738 AM CDT MON OCT 06 2025  
 
VALID 061300Z - 071200Z  
   
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
 
 
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS  
AND INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER,  
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE  
VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE  
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MI. THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST  
TO CONTINUE EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A SERIES OF  
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS FROM  
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES SOUTHWESTWARD OFF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA  
COAST. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN  
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGHING, ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS STRONGER  
FLOW WILL REMAIN DISPLACED NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT.  
 
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (I.E.  
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S), SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES  
EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. HOWEVER, OVERALL BUOYANCY WILL BE  
TEMPERED BY POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. TWO AREAS ALONG THE FRONTAL  
ZONE, NORTHERN IL INTO LOWER MI AND EASTERN NM/TX PANHANDLE, DO  
APPEAR TO HAVE A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS.  
   
..NORTHERN IL INTO LOWER MI
 
 
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S, TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW  
80S, AND MODEST BUOYANCY (I.E. MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG) ARE EXPECTED  
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LIFT ALONG  
THE FRONT, ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL ASCENT PROVIDED BY A LOW-AMPLITUDE  
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WILL INTERACT WITH THIS BUOYANCY TO  
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT  
PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. MODERATE SHEAR WILL ALSO BE  
IN PLACE, WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTOR A BIT  
MORE ORTHOGONAL TO THE FRONT THAN AREAS FARTHER SOUTH. AS SUCH,  
THERE IS GREATER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN WITHIN THE  
WARM SECTOR LONGER. AS SUCH, A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH DAMAGING  
GUST POTENTIAL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN IL OWING TO 30-40 KT OF  
EFFECTIVE SHEAR ORIENTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS MAY  
CONTINUE AFTER DARK INTO LOWER MI WITH SPORADIC DAMAGING GUST  
POTENTIAL. EVEN SO, MINIMAL BUOYANCY SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE  
THREAT.  
   
..EASTERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE
 
 
STRONG HEATING AND MIXING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BOUNDARY-LAYER  
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS  
DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG  
THE FRONT, BUT THE OVERALL BUOYANCY WILL BE LIMITED BY WARM  
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES/POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EVEN SO, HIGH  
STORM BASES AND 30 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COULD RESULT IN A FEW  
STRONGER GUSTS. OVERALL POTENTIAL AND COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED  
TO BE TOO LOW TO MERIT INTRODUCING ANY SEVERE PROBABILITIES.  
 
..MOSIER/BENTLEY.. 10/06/2025  
 

 
 
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