058
ACUS02 KWNS 061728
SWODY2
SPC AC 061727
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2025
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL OVER
WESTERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROBABLE FROM THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NORTHEAST, WITH THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. TO THE WEST, UPPER
RIDGING WILL DEVELOP INTO THE PLAINS, WITH RELATIVELY COOL MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES WITH -10 C AT 500 MB AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 40.
AT THE SURFACE, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
PLAINS, BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY. WEAK INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS. GIVEN THE AFFECTS OF EARLY
DAY CLOUDS/RAIN, THE SEVERE RISK SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED DESPITE
MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35 KT.
FARTHER WEST, ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST
AIR MASS WESTWARD INTO NM, BENEATH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
..CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NM DURING
AFTERNOON, WITH STRONG HEATING COMBINED WITH LOW TO MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE, RESULTING IN MLCAPE PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG. VEERING
WINDS WITH HEIGHT, AND ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS IN THE MID TO HIGH
LEVELS MAY HELP SUPPORT CELLULAR STORM MODE WITH A FEW PRODUCING
HAIL OVER 1.00" DIAMETER. AS SUCH, HAVE INTRODUCED LOW HAIL
PROBABILITIES FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
..JEWELL.. 10/06/2025
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