885
ACUS01 KWNS 062001
SWODY1
SPC AC 061959
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2025
VALID 062000Z - 071200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
AND INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
..20Z UPDATE
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OUTLOOK. STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FROM THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
COUPLE STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS FROM NORTHERN IL INTO LOWER
MI, BUT GENERALLY WEAK BUOYANCY AND LAPSE RATES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT. TRANSIENT STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS AND ALSO ACROSS
EASTERN NM, BUT GENERALLY WEAK TO MODEST BUOYANCY WILL TEND TO LIMIT
STORM INTENSITY. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
..DEAN.. 10/06/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1055 AM CDT MON OCT 06 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY, WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT,
COUPLED WITH POCKETS OF STRONG HEATING, WILL YIELD AT LEAST MARGINAL
CAPE FROM LOWER MI SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NM. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STORMS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT. SUFFICIENT LOW AND MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS SUGGEST A
LOW-END RISK OF AN AFTERNOON STRONG STORM OR TWO FROM NORTHEAST IL
INTO LOWER MI, BUT WEAK THERMODYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE
RISK. OTHER STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER EAST-CENTRAL NM WHERE
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE PRESENT, BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.
OTHER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND LOWER MS VALLEY, BUT
WEAK PARAMETERS SUGGEST THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOW.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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