970
ACUS48 KWNS 070805
SWOD48
SPC AC 070803
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2025
VALID 101200Z - 151200Z
..DISCUSSION
UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS ON DAY 4/FRI. BY DAY 5 OR
6/SAT OR SUN, MOST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTING FROM A LARGER-SCALE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
U.S. PRIOR TO THIS WILL LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND THUS,
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, SPREAD IN
FORECAST GUIDANCE INCREASES. THE GFS SHOWS A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN, BRINGING AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LITTLE GULF RETURN FLOW TO SUPPORT
SEVERE POTENTIAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH, ALLOWING FOR MORE
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS. IF
THIS OCCURS, SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, GIVEN LARGE UNCERTAINTY, PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW.
REGARDLESS, A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS EVIDENT
FOR THE PLAINS.
..LEITMAN.. 10/07/2025
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