168
ACUS02 KWNS 071731
SWODY2
SPC AC 071729
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT TUE OCT 07 2025
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
AN AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM EASTERN
CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY, AND REACH PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST BY
EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO AMPLIFY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS. WEST OF THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE, A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN IN PLACE NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST AND ADJACENT EASTERN PACIFIC,
AS AN EMBEDDED DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE MOVES SOUTHWARD OFF OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST.
..NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING, IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE COLD FRONT. WHILE MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE
LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING, STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND SOME ENLARGEMENT
TO LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS COULD SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS AND WEAK ROTATION
WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. AT THIS TIME, INSTABILITY
APPEARS TOO MEAGER TO SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.
..GA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST VA
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM PARTS OF GA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
SOUTHEAST VA, ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL
INITIALLY BE MODESTLY ENHANCED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, THOUGH MAY TEND TO WEAKEN THROUGH
THE DAY. WITH POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES, WEAK BUOYANCY, AND
GENERALLY WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH TIME, ORGANIZED SEVERE
POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW, THOUGH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGEST STORMS.
..EASTERN AZ INTO WESTERN NM
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN AZ
INTO WESTERN NM ON WEDNESDAY, POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING AS FAR NORTH AS
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SOME WARMING OF MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
WEAKENING OF MIDLEVEL FLOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE EXPECTED COMPARED TO
D1/TUESDAY, DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THIS
SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY, THOUGH
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..DEAN.. 10/07/2025
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