965
ACUS11 KWNS 072029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072029
NMZ000-072300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2139
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 PM CDT TUE OCT 07 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 072029Z - 072300Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE EVOLUTION OF ONE OR TWO SUPERCELLS POSING A RISK FOR
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS POSSIBLE NEAR AND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH OF ALBUQUERQUE BY 4-6 PM MDT.
DISCUSSION...DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THIS IS
LIKELY OCCURRING AS LINGERING INHIBITION IS OVERCOME BY OROGRAPHIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT, WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION, AND CONTINUED
BOUNDARY-LAYER WARMING.
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER MEAN FLOW IS A RELATIVELY MODEST
20-25 KT, BUT VERTICAL SHEAR HAS BECOME STRONG, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE ALBUQUERQUE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO, WHERE EASTERLY
NEAR-SURFACE FLOW IS TRENDING SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS GENERALLY
COINCIDES WITH STRONGEST ONGOING BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION NEAR
AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH OF ALBUQUERQUE, WHICH APPEARS TO INCLUDE
MIXED-LAYER CAPE LOCALLY UP TO 1000 J/KG.
THROUGH 22-00Z, IT APPEARS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE TO SCATTERED INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, POSSIBLY INCLUDING THE EVOLUTION OF 1 OR 2 SUSTAINED
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THE STRONGER CELLS MAY TEND TO TAKE ON AN
INCREASING EASTWARD PROPAGATION, ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS INTO EARLY EVENING.
..KERR/HART.. 10/07/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35450707 35440653 35230626 34730608 34160605 33960654
34210718 34770753 35450707
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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