346
ACUS01 KWNS 080557
SWODY1
SPC AC 080555
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT WED OCT 08 2025
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
..SYNOPSIS
AN EXPANSIVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST
WILL STEADILY MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AS IT INTENSIFIES. ENHANCED
FLOW ALOFT BEHIND AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THE SOUTHEAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING TROUGH, MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD RAPIDLY
OVER THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CONUS EAST OF ANOTHER INTENSIFYING
UPPER LOW OVER THE WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY.
THE SAME FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
SOUTHWEST SLOWING AND AIDING IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
..MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EARLY THIS MORNING, STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A NARROW LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE BAND ALONG
THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES. AREA MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
WEAK BUOYANCY AROUND 100-300 J/KG OF MUCAPE. WHILE BUOYANCY AND
LAPSE RATE WILL BE POOR, LOW AND MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE
FAIRLY STRONG BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL JET. THUS WHILE LITTLE LIGHTNING
IS EXPECTED OWING TO THE SHALLOW CONVECTION, DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT OF THIS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
DAMAGING GUSTS IN REACHING THE SURFACE BEFORE THE CONVECTIVE LINE
MOVES OFFSHORE BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MEAGER BUOYANCY LENDS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY SUSTAINED SEVERE THREAT.
..SOUTHEAST
TO THE SOUTH, THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM AL/GA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VA.
DIURNAL HEATING AMID UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S F DEWPOINTS SHOULD
SUPPORT WEAK DESTABILIZATION. SOME LINGERING MID-LEVEL FLOW COULD
ALLOW FOR A FEW TRANSIENT MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG OUTFLOW
GUSTS. HOWEVER, WITH ONLY MODEST ASCENT, LOW STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED. THIS ALONG WITH POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BUOYANCY
SUGGEST ANY SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO BE BRIEF.
..SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE STALLED COLD FRONT, LOW-LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NM AND NORTHEAST
AZ. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND THE PASSING INFLUENCE OF THE
DEEPENING PACIFIC LOW WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE OVERLY STRONG (20-30
KT), A FEW MORE ROBUST MULTICELL STORMS COULD SUPPORT OCCASIONAL
DAMAGING GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL GIVEN STEEPER LOW AND-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE.
..LYONS/SQUITIERI.. 10/08/2025
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