960
ACUS01 KWNS 081247
SWODY1
SPC AC 081246
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 AM CDT WED OCT 08 2025
VALID 081300Z - 091200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
..SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS EXTENSIVE UPPER RIDGING FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES, WITH A PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FLANKING THIS RIDGING. THE EASTERN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE HUDSON BAY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY WHILE THE WESTERN SHORTWAVE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL BRITISH
COLUMBIA TO OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE TODAY, TAKING IT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY THIS
EVENING. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO A NOTABLE UPPER LOW
WHILE REMAINING JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE UPPER
RIDGING BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD/NORTHEASTWARD AND COVER MUCH OF THE CONUS BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED AN EXTENSIVE COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL
ME SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL MS BEFORE ARCING MORE WESTWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST TX AND THEN BACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NM. EASTERN
PORTION OF THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE TODAY, MOVING QUICKLY
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO MAKE STEADY SOUTHEASTWARD/SOUTHWARD PROGRESS
INTO MORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES. MODEST BUOYANCY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MEAGER BUOYANCY SHOULD KEEP THE
SEVERE THREAT LOW, ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING MID-LEVEL FLOW COULD
ALLOW FOR A FEW TRANSIENT MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG OUTFLOW
GUSTS.
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER MS VALLEY
INTO SOUTH TX BUT LIMITED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE LOW. HIGHER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EXIST FARTHER WEST INTO NM/AZ, WHERE ANOTHER DAY OF
LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STALLED COLD FRONT. STRONG HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS,
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR (20-30KT) MAY SUPPORT A FEW MORE ROBUST
MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF OCCASIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL
GIVEN STEEPER LOW AND-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AROUND 1000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE.
..MOSIER/BENTLEY.. 10/08/2025
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