634
ACUS02 KWNS 081724
SWODY2
SPC AC 081722
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT WED OCT 08 2025
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OFF OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE ATTENDANT LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC COAST AND ADJACENT EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE
LITTLE DURING THE PERIOD. TROPICAL CYCLONE PRISCILLA IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OFF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST, AS IT
BECOMES INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY THE WESTERN TROUGH. INSTABILITY
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE REGION, BUT INCREASING
MOISTURE (ASSOCIATED IN PART WITH PRISCILLA) WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS A BROAD REGION OF THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE
GULF COAST AND FL PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE TN VALLEY INTO PARTS OF AL/GA.
LINGERING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
FL, ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN PENINSULA. ISOLATED STORMS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTH AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE.
A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MODEST AT BEST,
BUT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE
EVENING, IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LOW
ACROSS PARTS OF MN/WI/UPPER MI. SOMEWHAT GREATER ELEVATED BUOYANCY
MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE OVERNIGHT FROM PARTS OF IA INTO THE LOWER MO
AND UPPER MS VALLEY, WHICH COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED STORMS WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL WARM-ADVECTION
REGIME.
..DEAN.. 10/08/2025
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