621
ACUS01 KWNS 090545
SWODY1
SPC AC 090543
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT THU OCT 09 2025
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT FORECAST.
..DISCUSSION
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR
ROBUST ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY; ALTHOUGH, SEVERAL AREAS OF
CONCENTRATED CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED.
UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH THE DAY1 PERIOD AS A STRONG LOW HOLDS OFF THE OREGON COAST.
MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ENCOURAGE HIGHER PW AIR MASS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHERE MODEST
BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ADEQUATE DESTABILIZATION
FOR LIGHTING WITHIN DEEPER CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FL IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW-LATITUDE MIDLEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH-PW AIR MASS AND POOR LAPSE
RATES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN, RATHER THAN
SEVERE STORMS, WITHIN BROADER EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY
HIGH-LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF A DIGGING TROUGH. WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONT, AND ELEVATED
CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN KANSAS.
..DARROW/SQUITIERI.. 10/09/2025
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