403
ACUS03 KWNS 090651
SWODY3
SPC AC 090650
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 AM CDT THU OCT 09 2025
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED ON SATURDAY AS
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST DEVELOPS EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL SUPPORT MODEST INSTABILITY. WITH
INCREASING MID/UPPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH
THE EJECTING UPPER TROUGH, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. POOR LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MI
INTO OH BENEATH THE CORE OF AN UPPER CYCLONE DRIFTING SOUTH TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER, BUT COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND MODEST LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FROM ISOLATED
LIGHTNING WITH LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION.
A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC. WHILE A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE
PRIOR TO SATURDAY, SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF A SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS TO SUPPORT
MODEST INSTABILITY. ANY STRONGER INSTABILITY, AND MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE, AND SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
..LEITMAN.. 10/09/2025
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