671
ACUS03 KWNS 091905
SWODY3
SPC AC 091904
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 PM CDT THU OCT 09 2025
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
GREAT BASIN TO THE CO PLATEAU...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO PARTS OF THE COLORADO PLATEAU.
..EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND THE CO PLATEAU
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE WEST AS A BASAL
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EJECTS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLY TIMED WITH PEAK SURFACE
HEATING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO PARTS OF THE CO PLATEAU,
AS A SWATH OF STRONG 500-MB SOUTHWESTERLIES OVERSPREADS. EARLY
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
SHARPENING PACIFIC COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES EAST. WHILE OVERALL
BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN WEAK, OWING TO PROGRESSIVELY POORER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH SOUTHEAST EXTENT AND COOLER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS TO THE NORTHWEST, THE STRONG FLOW AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST A FEW
SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD, BUT
A BRIEF TORNADO AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR AS WELL.
..GRAMS.. 10/09/2025
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