368
ACUS02 KWNS 100553
SWODY2
SPC AC 100552
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST....
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
..INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AT MID-LEVELS, A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC ON SATURDAY, AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL FALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES DURING THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
NEVADA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A MOIST AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY
IN THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA, BUT THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD BY AFTERNOON. ALONG AND NEAR THE MOIST AXIS, INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR LIKELY TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON FROM UTAH INTO ARIZONA AND
EASTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS VICINITY. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH AND
NORTHERN ARIZONA HAVE MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG, WITH 0-3 KM LAPSE
RATES AROUND 8 C/KM. IN ADDITION, MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS
FORECAST. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL. THE THREAT COULD PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING, IN
AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE THE MOST.
..BROYLES.. 10/10/2025
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