938
ACUS02 KWNS 101729
SWODY2
SPC AC 101728
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
GREAT BASIN...THE CO PLATEAU...AND THE NC OUTER BANKS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND THE COLORADO
PLATEAU. A BRIEF TORNADO AND A SEVERE GUST ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE EARLY MORNING SUNDAY.
..EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND THE CO PLATEAU
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE WEST AS A BASAL
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EJECTS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN DURING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS EVOLUTION WILL YIELD A SWATH OF
STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES. THIS WILL BE
FAVORABLY TIMED WITH PEAK SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN INTO PARTS OF THE CO PLATEAU.
IN THE WAKE OF WEAK MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF AZ ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS, SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SHARPENING PACIFIC COLD FRONT AS IT
PUSHES EAST. WHILE MLCAPE WILL REMAIN WEAK, OWING TO PROGRESSIVELY
POORER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SOUTHEAST EXTENT AND COOLER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS TO THE NORTHWEST, STRENGTHENING
DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR WILL YIELD ELONGATION OF A FAIRLY
STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPH. A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY, ALTHOUGH THE
WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/BUOYANCY SHOULD SUPPORT PRIMARILY A
MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT. A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE IN THE FOUR
CORNERS VICINITY WHERE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IS GREATER. GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, UPSCALE GROWTH INTO
CLUSTERS/SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS SHOULD OCCUR, FOSTERING POTENTIAL FOR
SPORADIC SEVERE GUSTS INTO EARLY/MID-EVENING ACROSS THE CO PLATEAU.
..NC OUTER BANKS
MORNING NCEP GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF A GRADUALLY DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE OFF THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE SURFACE WARM FRONT ADVANCING
ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS BETWEEN 06-12Z SUNDAY, WITH A CONDITIONALLY
SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR A SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL. WHILE THE BULK
OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED OFFSHORE THROUGH
THE PERIOD, THERE'S ENOUGH SIGNAL TO WARRANT A LOW-PROBABILITY
THREAT OF A BRIEF TORNADO/SEVERE GUST.
..GRAMS.. 10/10/2025
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