164
ACUS02 KWNS 111653
SWODY2
SPC AC 111652
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE-STORM RISK APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
..EAST
A SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AT 12Z SUNDAY SHOULD
GRADUALLY FILL AS IT DRIFTS NORTH, OFFSHORE OF THE LOWER
MID-ATLANTIC. CONVECTION SHOULD PRIMARILY SEGREGATE INTO TWO
CORRIDORS OF WEAK ELEVATED ACTIVITY. ONE NEAR THE QUASI-STATIONARY
MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN EASTERN SC AND THE OTHER IN THE OFFSHORE
LOW-LEVEL WARM CONVEYOR THAT WILL SUSTAIN WEAKENING CONVECTION
APPROACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. LARGELY
POOR LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY/MUCAPE AND THUNDER COVERAGE.
..NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPINGING ON THE NORTHWEST ND/FAR NORTHEAST MT
VICINITY. ISOLATED ELEVATED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST WITHIN THE DOWNSTREAM LOW-LEVEL WARM CONVEYOR ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK MUCAPE/MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH CONVECTION SUBSIDING BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
..SOUTHWEST
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST PROBABLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AZ INTO SOUTHWEST NM. WEAK LAPSE RATES ABOVE A RELATIVELY SHALLOW
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE VIGOR. ISOLATED ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING
MONDAY BOTH NORTHWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS AND EASTWARD IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
..PACIFIC NORTHWEST
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
WILL AID IN SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STEEPENING OF
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM RISK ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
..GRAMS.. 10/11/2025
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