777
ACUS03 KWNS 111920
SWODY3
SPC AC 111919
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT YET FORECAST ON MONDAY.
..SOUTHWEST
A MID/UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE OR TO THE NORTHERN CA
COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BROADENING SWATH OF 50+ KT 500-MB
SOUTHWESTERLIES TO WESTERLIES WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF SOUTHERN CA TO
THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND CO PLATEAU. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN FOR
A POTENTIAL LEVEL 1-MRGL RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS IS FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS VICINITY SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN AZ TO SOUTHERN NM, WHERE
THE STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER FLOW REGIME WOULD SUPPORT LOWER-END
MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION. BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR LIKELY
TO REMAIN WEAK, LIMITING MLCAPE. DEPENDING ON MESOSCALE DETAILS
RELATED TO THE DEGREE OF DIABATIC SURFACE HEATING, IN THE WAKE OF
LINGERING OVERNIGHT/MORNING CLOUDS/RAIN, A CORRIDOR OR TWO OF
LOW-END SEVERE HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME WARRANTED.
..CA
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATE AN INTENSE MID-LEVEL JETLET SHOULD
IMPINGE ON THE SOUTHERN CA COAST MONDAY NIGHT, TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN CA LOW. THIS WOULD FOSTER A CONDITIONALLY
FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. HOWEVER,
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN SHALLOW
CONVECTION WHERE HODOGRAPHS WOULD BE ENLARGED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL
WARM CONVEYOR. ISOLATED, GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED
FARTHER NORTH WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MUCH STEEPER, AND
MEAGER BUOYANCY CAN STILL BE MAINTAINED.
..GRAMS.. 10/11/2025
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