307
ACUS03 KWNS 120725
SWODY3
SPC AC 120724
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NEW MEXICO...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF NEW MEXICO.
..NEW MEXICO
AT MID-LEVELS, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL U.S., AS A LOW
MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES, SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE, A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE LOCATED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO
BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S F. AS SURFACE HEATING TAKES PLACE ON TUESDAY,
AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. ACCORDING TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS, MLCAPE IS FORECAST TO
REACH THE 1000 TO 1200 J/KG RANGE ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS, WITH
0-3 KM LAPSE RATES PEAKING NEAR 7.5 C/KM. THIS COULD SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR IN
THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORM CORES.
..BROYLES.. 10/12/2025
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