574
ACUS03 KWNS 121925
SWODY3
SPC AC 121924
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NM AND
SOUTHERN CA...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED, MARGINAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS A
PORTION OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY MORNING TO MIDDAY, AND NEW
MEXICO FROM MID-AFTERNOON TO MID-EVENING.
..SOUTHERN CA
A LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE BAND MAY BE ONGOING AT 12Z TUESDAY IN THE
CENTRAL-SOUTH CA COASTAL AREA NEAR/NORTHWEST OF THE LOS ANGELES
BASIN. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BELT OF STRONG 850-700 MB WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY BENEATH AN INTENSE MID-LEVEL JETLET
THAT SHIFTS FROM SOUTHERN CA INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER, TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL COLD CORE
ACROSS CENTRAL CA, AMID WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RATHER
LIMITED INSOLATION. BUT WITH SOME SIGNAL FOR CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING
THE STRONG WIND FIELDS, A LOW-PROBABILITY DAMAGING WIND AND BRIEF
WATERSPOUT TO TORNADO THREAT APPEARS WARRANTED.
..NM
SIMILAR TO PRIOR DAYS, WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN A
LIMITING FACTOR TO UPDRAFT VIGOR. NEVERTHELESS, A BELT OF MODERATELY
ENHANCED MID-LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL PERSIST BETWEEN THE CA
CYCLONE AND EAST TX ANTICYCLONE. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE DEGREE OF
BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING TUESDAY ACROSS NM, BUT GENERALLY AGREE THAT
MODEST BUOYANCY SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST NM.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PEAK DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA. THIS SOUTHERN ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NM DURING THE EVENING. AN
ISOLATED AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT REMAINS POSSIBLE.
..GRAMS.. 10/12/2025
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