266
ACUS02 KWNS 130556
SWODY2
SPC AC 130555
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR WEST TEXAS...NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF FAR WEST TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND
WIND-DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY ALONG THE
COAST IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
..FAR WEST TEXAS/NEW MEXICO
AT MID-LEVELS, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ON TUESDAY,
AS A LOW MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STRONGER FLOW, AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FROM FAR WEST TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE DAY
NEAR THE INSTABILITY AXIS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. NEAR THE INSTABILITY AXIS, MLCAPE IS FORECAST TO PEAK IN
THE 1000 TO 1200 J/KG RANGE. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MODERATE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
..SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
A MID-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY, AS
AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE NEAR THE TROUGH,
ALONG A FOCUSED BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. THE STORMS WILL FORM
NEAR THE AXIS OF 80 TO 90 KNOT MID-LEVEL JET, WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE COAST FROM
LOS ANGELES TO SAN DIEGO AROUND MIDDAY ON TUESDAY HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR
NEAR 80 KNOTS, WITH 0-3 KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY IN THE 150 TO 250
M2/S2 RANGE. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL TORNADO AND
WIND-DAMAGE THREAT, MAINLY WITH LOW-TOPPED ROTATING STORMS THAT MOVE
INLAND.
..BROYLES.. 10/13/2025
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