915
ACUS03 KWNS 130729
SWODY3
SPC AC 130729
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND IN THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.
..SOUTHERN ROCKIES
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ON
WEDNESDAY, AS CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER FLOW, A NORTH-TO-SOUTH AXIS OF INSTABILITY
IS FORECAST FROM SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO.
WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY WILL AID CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT. MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CORES.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
A MID-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST ON WEDNESDAY, AS AN ASSOCIATED 70 TO 80 KNOT JET STREAK MOVES
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE EXIT REGION OF THE JET WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PROVIDING A
BROAD ZONE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT THAT WILL AID SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AT THE SURFACE, A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
AND STEADILY DEEPEN IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST-TO-WEST-NORTHWEST AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES
INCREASINGLY DEFINED BEHIND THE FRONT. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO
BECOME MAXIMIZED DURING THE EVENING AT THE WESTERN END OF THE MOIST
AXIS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING. THIS POCKET
OF INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY LATE EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE INSTABILITY, DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL STEADILY INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS THE
JET STREAK APPROACHES, MAKING CONDITIONS SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT. CELLS THAT DEVELOP WITHIN THE AREA OF STRONGEST
INSTABILITY MAY HAVE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL.
..BROYLES.. 10/13/2025
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