787
ACUS03 KWNS 132259
SWODY3
SPC AC 132257
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0557 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...
CORRECTED FOR IMPROPER LINE GROUPINGS
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AREAS OF HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK, WITH SPORADIC STRONG GUSTS POSSIBLE.
..SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LOW OVER UT WILL PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES, WITH A BELT OF STRONG MID AND HIGH LEVEL FLOW MOVING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY
THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN CO AND WY
DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WITH POOR TRAJECTORIES EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF AMERICA. HOWEVER, COOLING ALOFT WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH AND AN EXISTING PLUME OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL AID
DESTABILIZATION. BY LATE AFTERNOON, MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG IS
FORECAST OVER CENTRAL NM, AND FROM NORTHEAST CO INTO WESTERN NE.
EARLY DAY PRECIP MAY HAMPER DESTABILIZATION IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES, BUT A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL.
FARTHER NORTH INTO CO/WY/NE, ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING HAIL
APPEAR MORE LIKELY AS INSTABILITY IS MORE LIKELY TO BE AT OR ABOVE
1000 J/KG, ALONG WITH LONG HODOGRAPHS. FURTHER, AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY AID STORM LONGEVITY INTO THE EVENING
INTO WESTERN SD.
..JEWELL.. 10/13/2025
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