038
ACUS02 KWNS 140547
SWODY2
SPC AC 140546
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT, BUT A FEW
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR.
..CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
ON WEDNESDAY AT MID-LEVELS, A RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S., AS A LOW MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES, STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE, AS A JET STREAK MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO, AS A WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ALONG THE FRONT, SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM 55 TO
60 F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. A POCKET OF MLCAPE IN THE 1000 TO 1200 J/KG RANGE IS
FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA. AS THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING, LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY WITH HAIL AND A
FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE THREAT COULD PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
..SOUTHERN ROCKIES
A MID-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON WEDNESDAY, AS AN ASSOCIATED 60 TO 80 KNOT JET
STREAK TRANSLATES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AHEAD
OF THE JET, AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON FROM WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR SOUTHERN COLORADO.
AS THE CORE OF THE JET STREAK PASSES THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL
AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
NEAR THE INSTABILITY AXIS. THE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH MODERATE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET STREAK WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAIL
AND ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
..BROYLES.. 10/14/2025
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