933
ACUS02 KWNS 141717
SWODY2
SPC AC 141715
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT, BUT A FEW
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR.
..SYNOPSIS
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST TOWARD THE
ROCKIES AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE MS
VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WITHIN THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS UT AND INTO WY. THE LEADING UPPER SPEED MAX WILL EXTEND FROM
NORTHERN AZ INTO UT EARLY WEDNESDAY, AND WILL AFFECT PARTS OF NM,
CO, AND WY OVERNIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM
CENTRAL WY INTO NORTHEAST CO, AND THIS LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EAST NEAR
THE SD/NE BORDER, AND WILL SURGE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS A 50 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THIS WARM FRONT
SHOULD BRING 50S F DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION, ALLOWING FOR
MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
TO THE SOUTH, A PLUME OF LOW TO MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FROM
NM INTO CO, WITH A MINIMAL SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN TO CENTRAL
NM SUPPORTING ASCENT BENEATH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT.
..CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
CONDITIONS WILL DESTABILIZE QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HEATING
OCCURS ALONG WITH NORTHWESTWARD ADVECTION OF 50S F DEWPOINTS.
INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS WILL FORM WITHIN A NARROW UNCAPPED ZONE
FROM NORTHEAST CO INTO EASTERN WY. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND
SUFFICIENT MUCAPE OVER 500 J/KG WILL FAVOR HAIL PRODUCTION IN THE
STRONGEST CELLS. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS COVERAGE OF SEVERE WILL BE
ISOLATED.
..NM
STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHERN NM DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WITH PEAK HEATING AND WITHIN A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
REGIME. EARLY DAY RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DELAY DESTABILIZATION
SOMEWHAT, BUT AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WIND
PROFILES WILL BE VEERING WITH HEIGHT, AND DEEP-LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR
WILL BE NEAR 50 KT. AS SUCH, CELLULAR STORM MODE IS MOST LIKELY,
WITH A FEW REPORTS OF HAIL OVER 1.00" POSSIBLE.
..JEWELL.. 10/14/2025
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