594
ACUS02 KWNS 150534
SWODY2
SPC AC 150532
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
A MID-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY,
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. AT THE
SURFACE, A LOW WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR NORTHWEST
KANSAS. BY MID AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY, MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO REACH
NEAR 1000 J/KG ALONG THIS AXIS, WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES
PEAKING IN THE 7 TO 8 C/KM RANGE. IN ADDITION, 0-6 KM SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO AROUND 50 KNOTS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED ROTATING STORMS. THE
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
UNDERCUTS MOST OF THE CONVECTION.
..BROYLES.. 10/15/2025
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