394
ACUS03 KWNS 171930
SWODY3
SPC AC 171929
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
APPALACHAINS AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGIONS.
..SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION
ON SUNDAY, A NEGATIVE-TILT AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO OHIO VALLEY REGION, AND INTO THE CENTRAL
TO NORTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING STRONG
WIND FIELDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS.
A SURFACE LOW OVER LOWER MI IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD
INTO CANADA DURING THE DAY, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS OH AND INTO KY AND TN SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL RACE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND WILL INTERACT WITH A PLUME OF 50S F
DEWPOINTS AND AREA OF DAYTIME HEATING. ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT, BUT SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS AND
LOW-LEVEL LIFT FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO A NARROW BAND
OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE WITHOUT
LIGHTNING, BUT COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN AL/GA, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REMAIN ALONG THE FRONT EARLY IN THE DAY, BUT A WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED DUE TO RAPID DRYING FROM THE WEST AND INCREASING MIDLEVEL
SUBSIDENCE.
..JEWELL.. 10/17/2025
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