574
FNUS22 KWNS 171937
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
..WESTERN TEXAS AND TEXAS PANHANDLE
A ROBUST MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL
EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH DAY 2/SATURDAY PERIOD. THE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD SUPPORT ELEVATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TX EARLY SATURDAY, QUICKLY MOVING EAST INTO
NORTHERN TX AND OK THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
TRAVERSE OVER A RESIDUAL DRY, POST-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE
TX PANHANDLE. THE ELEVATED NORTHEASTWARD STORM MOTIONS OF UP TO 45
MPH AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL LIMIT SURFACE RAINFALL PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAP ROCK AREAS, WITH WETTING RAINFALL
POTENTIAL INCREASING FARTHER EAST. VERY DRY CONDITIONS RESURFACE
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN TX AS THE SURFACE FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AND DAYTIME BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING RESULTS IN
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AMID RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BELOW 15%. POCKETS OF RECEPTIVE FUELS WHERE MORNING RAINFALL IS
MINIMIZED COMBINED WITH DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE NOW MOST LIKELY TO
BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND CAP ROCK AREAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, WHERE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK LARGELY REMAINS.
..WILLIAMS.. 10/17/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0148 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
D2/SATURDAY AS A FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. BEHIND THE DRYLINE, RELATIVE HUMIDITY REDUCTIONS TO 15-20
PERCENT WILL OVERLAP WITH WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. OVERALL, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS
SPATIAL EXTENT OF ANY CRITICAL CONDITIONS VERY LIMITED. AS SUCH, AN
ELEVATED AREA WAS MAINTAINED WITH THIS OUTLOOK THOUGH SOME LOCALIZED
CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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