541
ACUS02 KWNS 181714
SWODY2
SPC AC 181712
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF
COAST...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY FROM
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
REGIONS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
GULF COAST EARLY SUNDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST ON
SUNDAY, OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND TN VALLEY, AND
BECOMING ORIENTED FROM WESTERN NY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY
MONDAY MORNING. STRONG FLOW ALOFT, WITH AN 80-100 KT 500 MB JET
STREAK WILL OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AROUND 40-50 KT 850 MB SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALSO IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST FROM THE GULF COAST AND OHIO VALLEY
TO THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE, THE PRIMARY CYCLONE OVER LOWER MI WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC, WITH A TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE
FRONT WILL DEVELOP EAST/SOUTHEAST, AND MOVE OFFSHORE THE ATLANTIC
COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
FRONT ARCING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA. RICHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE GULF
COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES THOUGH PEAK HEATING, WITH SOME GREATER
NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AFTER 00Z.
..CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO MID-ATLANTIC
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED, WITH DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY ONLY REACHING INTO THE 50S, WITH SOME 60S POSSIBLE CLOSER
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST VICINITY DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. POOR LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ALSO ARE FORECAST,
LARGELY LIMITING INSTABILITY TO LESS THAN 400 J/KG MLCAPE.
FURTHERMORE, CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL BE LOW-TOPPED, GENERALLY BELOW 3 KM DEEP. NEVERTHELESS,
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS COULD ENHANCE SURFACE GUSTS GIVEN 40-50 KT FLOW
IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. ISOLATED GUSTS 50-60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.
..GULF COAST
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE NEAR THE
EASTWARD-PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN A 40-50 KT 850 MB
LOW-LEVEL JET LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. STRONG GUSTS AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER, LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BECOME INCREASING
DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST. VERTICAL SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES BECOME LESS FAVORABLE WITH EASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS GA AND
NORTHERN FL AS WELL, LIMITING THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE SEVERE
RISK.
..LEITMAN.. 10/18/2025
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