145
ACUS02 KWNS 190558
SWODY2
SPC AC 190556
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY MONDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE
NORTHEAST EARLY MONDAY AS A SECOND UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. STRONG ASCENT FROM THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT. SHOWERS AND SOME
LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY ALONG THE SURGING
COLD FRONT ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. OTHERWISE, ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA, BUT SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS LIMITED.
..SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
STRONG FORCING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH AND FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
HELP FORCE A SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BAND ALONG THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
WITH LITTLE TO NO DIURNAL HEATING AND ONLY SHALLOW MOISTURE
EXPECTED, ANY DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTIVE BAND SHOULD
BE MINIMAL (SBCAPE LESS THAN 300 J/KG). MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
VERY THIN CAPE PROFILES ROOTED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH POOR
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER SOUTHERN NY INTO MA/CT AND RI. WHILE SOME
LIGHTNING AND A SPORADIC STRONG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
AN LOCALLY STRONGER LINE SEGMENTS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST MONDAY
MORNING; UNCERTAINTY ON STORM ORGANIZATION AND SUFFICIENT
SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION SUGGESTS A SEVERE RISK IS CURRENTLY
UNLIKELY. LOW-TOPPED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BENEATH THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW
OCCLUDES, BUT WITH AN INCREASINGLY NARROW SURFACE-BASED WARM SECTOR
AND VERY WEAK INSTABILITY.
..LYONS.. 10/19/2025
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