088
ACUS02 KWNS 191712
SWODY2
SPC AC 191711
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY MONDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP EAST ACROSS QUEBEC WITH A
TRAILING SURFACE FRONT MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING ALONG THE FRONT
WITHIN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
SUPPORT A NARROW WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN MUTED GIVEN POOR LAPSE RATES. STILL, STRONG MID/UPPER
FLOW COULD FOSTER GUSTY WINDS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, THOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS FL
WHERE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE NEW ENGLAND SURFACE FRONT WILL ARC
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
MODEST INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK
HEATING, BUT WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND POOR LAPSE RATES WILL PRECLUDE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FURTHER WEST, ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS TO
THE MS VALLEY. IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM, A SURFACE FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. GIVEN A PRIOR COLD FRONT
PASSAGE, THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG
THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A LIGHTNING FLASH OR TWO ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST OR GREAT LAKES
VICINITY, BUT OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10
PERCENT.
..LEITMAN.. 10/19/2025
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