579
FNUS22 KWNS 191955
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
EXPANSION OF ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS WAS WARRANTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CO
AND WESTERN KS. A MID-LEVEL 60-70 KNOT JET AT THE BASE OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERSPREADS COLORADO AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY. MINIMAL BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING TONIGHT IN THE LEE OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS COULD RESULT IN LIMITED RELATIVE HUMIDITY
RECOVERY AND COOLING, RESULTING IN A RAPID MIXING OF A SHALLOW
INVERSION AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES MONDAY. DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND
MIXING DURING THE DAY WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING BELOW 15% AND WINDS OF UP TO 15 MPH
BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE DRY COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST WILL ALSO BE A SOURCE
FOR INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST CO AND
WESTERN KS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY OF 15-20%. LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS FAR EASTERN CO/FAR WESTERN KS WHERE NORTHWEST WINDS
COULD REACH 30-35 MPH BUT MARGINALLY RECEPTIVE FUELS SHOULD MITIGATE
SIGNIFICANT FIRE GROWTH.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
DRY WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW SOUTH OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY. WEST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH AND DOWNSLOPE DRYING PROMOTING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 10% SHOULD BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO FAR EASTERN NM, NORTHWEST TX AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN OK
WHERE FUELS ARE MARGINALLY DRY AND RAINFALL HAS BEEN LIMITED.
..WILLIAMS.. 10/19/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0149 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
A TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS FROM D1/SUNDAY INTO D2/MONDAY. ENHANCED
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE ROCKIES, WITH LEE TROUGHING
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND A SURFACE CYCLONE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS INCREASE IN LEE TROUGHING AND
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING SURFACE FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AMID DRY CONDITIONS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE AREAS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS, STRONG POST
FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND 15-20 MPH WILL OVERLAP AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY REDUCTIONS TO AROUND 15-20 PERCENT. FUELS ARE
DRYING IN THIS REGION AND WILL BE MODESTLY RECEPTIVE TO FIRE SPREAD
THEREBY SUPPORTING AN ELEVATED RISK AREA.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AMID WARM AND DEEPLY MIXED PROFILES ACROSS
WESTERN NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS WILL SUPPORT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY REDUCTIONS AROUND 10-15 PERCENT. FUELS IN THIS REGION
REMAIN DRY, WITH LITTLE TO NO RECENT RAINFALL. THIS SUPPORTS KEEPING
AN ELEVATED RISK AREA ACROSS THIS REGION.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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