105
FNUS22 KWNS 211823
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
AN ELEVATED AREA WAS ADDED FOR THE PIEDMONT REGION FROM SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE
POST-FRONTAL DRYING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW RESULTING IN ELEVATED TO LOCALLY
CRITICAL CONDITIONS. WEST-NORTHWEST SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 MPH
WITH GUSTS MOSTLY 18-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED, AND SOME WIND FAVORED
AREAS COULD HAVE GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. RH WILL DROP BELOW 30% WITH
SOME AREAS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DRY/BREEZY
CONDITIONS MAY EXTEND FARTHER INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA AND
TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AS WELL.
LOCALLY ELEVATED WINDS/RH REMAIN POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AMID DRY RETURN FLOW. AN ELEVATED AREA MAY BE NECESSARY IF GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER AND WINDIER.
..NAUSLAR.. 10/21/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1225 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED FOR WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE COUNTRY, THOUGH LOCALIZED CONCERNS MAY EMERGE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST. AN UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS, REACHING THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AS THIS OCCURS, SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS TX AND OK. THE ONGOING FRONTAL INTRUSION INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY MODULATE MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHERN TX INTO CENTRAL OK. DRY RETURN FLOW REGIMES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TYPICALLY VERIFY DRIER THAN DEPICTED BY GUIDANCE AT
THIS RANGE, SO RH MINIMUMS IN THE TEENS APPEAR PROBABLE WHEN
ADJUSTING FOR CURRENT DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. DESPITE THE
DRY CONDITIONS, WIND SPEEDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 15
MPH OVER A SUBSTANTIAL AREA, WHICH LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL
FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL (THOUGH TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED). SIMILARLY,
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN BENIGN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS
MAY SEE RH REDUCTIONS INTO THE 20-30% RANGE WITHIN A WEAK DOWNSLOPE
FLOW REGIME OFF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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