968
ACUS02 KWNS 220554
SWODY2
SPC AC 220552
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
..SOUTHERN CO/EASTERN NM AND WEST TX
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER CO VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD REACHING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS BY EARLY FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND
ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MODEST LEE CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS SOUTHERN CO AND EASTERN NM. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL TRANSPORT MODEST MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING
FOR WEAK DESTABILIZATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AS ASCENT MOVES OVER THE MOISTENING AIR MASS, SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A PACIFIC FRONT FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NM BY MID AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND BENEATH THE COLD CORE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. FARTHER SOUTH, WHERE MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS, WEAK BUOYANCY ATOP DRY LOW-LEVELS MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS WITH ANY CONVECTION ABLE TO DEVELOP.
..TX PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL OK
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE A
WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE RED RIVER TOWARD THE OK/KS BORDER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AN INITIALLY STUBBORN WEDGE OF COLDER AIR
OVER THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST KS, WILL SLOWLY RECEDE
ALLOWING A PLUME OF RICHER MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTHWARD LATE IN THE
DAY AS LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES. HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE
TROUGH OVERSPREADING THE AREA WILL SUPPORT A 35-40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET,
INCREASING ASCENT ACROSS THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE INTO OK BY EARLY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION CONCURRENT WITH INCREASING WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. NUMEROUS STORMS ARE LIKELY, COMPLICATING THE CONVECTIVE
MODE, BUT MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG AND ELONGATING HODOGRAPHS MAY
SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS/MULTICELLS WITH HAIL POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT.
..LYONS.. 10/22/2025
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page