374
ACUS03 KWNS 221924
SWODY3
SPC AC 221923
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
..THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST TX
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, CENTERED ON WEST
TO CENTRAL TEXAS, FROM MID-AFTERNOON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
..SYNOPSIS
A PAIR OF IMPULSES, EMBEDDED WITHIN A POSITIVE-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM SOUTHWEST CO TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CA, SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY
SATURDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL JETLET ATTENDANT TO THE BASAL IMPULSE WILL
SHIFT ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO, SUPPORTING STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ACROSS WEST TX ON FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
..TX VICINITY
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AT 12Z
FRIDAY FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO KS, WITH MORE
ISOLATED/DIMINISHING ACTIVITY TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PARTS OF
WEST TX. THIS EARLY-DAY ACTIVITY WILL AID IN REINFORCING THE SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE RED RIVER. ADEQUATE BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING
WILL OCCUR TO ITS SOUTH THROUGH WEST, FOSTERING A BROAD PLUME OF
MODERATE BUOYANCY AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ENRICHMENT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS PLUME FROM THE TX
PANHANDLE TOWARDS THE PECOS VALLEY/TRANS-PECOS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT STRENGTHENS.
THE MOST PROBABLE CORRIDOR FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO
BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF WEST TX WHERE MODERATELY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE ANTICIPATED. MULTIPLE
CONVECTIVELY PARAMETERIZED MODELS ALONG WITH AVAILABLE CAMS STRONGLY
SUGGEST UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LARGE MCS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU TO BIG COUNTRY VICINITY ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT
PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY MORNING SATURDAY TOWARDS CENTRAL TX.
..GRAMS.. 10/22/2025
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