816
ACUS02 KWNS 230554
SWODY2
SPC AC 230553
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE CENTERED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS, FROM MID-AFTERNOON
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
...SYNOPSIS..
A BROAD, AND SOMEWHAT DISJOINTED POSITIVE-TILT UPPER TROUGH WITH
MULTIPLE EMBEDDED IMPULSES IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE
TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD, ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
OVERSPREAD A MOISTENING AIR MASS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
TX INTO SOUTHERN OK. A LEE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TRAILING A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PAINS.
..TRANS PECOS INTO CENTRAL TX
AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN MOST MID-LEVEL IMPULSE, ASCENT WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ERODING WEAK INHIBITION OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN
AND CENTRAL TX. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT MID 60S
TO LOW 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WESTWARD, SUPPORTING MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION OVER THE PECOS VALLEY NORTHWARD TO THE TX SOUTH
PLAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE
TROUGH AND ADVANCING COLD FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON, SPREADING EAST
NORTHEASTWARD. VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH 40+ KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD SUPPORT A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS
CAPABLE OF HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A TORNADO OR TWO.
GIVEN THE WEAK INHIBITION, PERSISTENT ASCENT, AND INCREASING STORM
COVERAGE, UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LARGE MCS IS LIKELY ACROSS THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU TO CENTRAL TX VICINITY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT A CONTINUED ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT INTO THE EARLY
SATURDAY.
..TX PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX
FARTHER NORTH, UNCERTAINTY IS MUCH HIGHER REGARDING SURFACE-BASED
DESTABILIZATION. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE
ONGOING AT 12Z FRIDAY FROM THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE, RED RIVER
VALLEY INTO KS, WITH REMNANT CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO IMPACT DIURNAL
HEATING. AN EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED SERVING AS THE NORTHERN EFFECTIVE LIMIT FOR THE
SURFACE-BASED WARM SECTOR. AS MID-LEVEL ASCENT INCREASES, SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE ELEVATED NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
WHILE A MESSY STORM MODE WITH NUMEROUS INTERACTIONS ARE LIKELY,
AT-LEAST ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR PROBABLE FROM THE
EASTERN TX PANHANDLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OK AND NORTH TX FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
..LYONS.. 10/23/2025
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