183
FNUS21 KWNS 231656
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
VALID 231700Z - 241200Z
..CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA
DESPITE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
EASTERN SEABOARD IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT, DRIER CONDITIONS HAVE
EMERGED ACROSS THE REGION WITH CURRENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
20-30% RANGE. THE CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE DRYING WITHIN DEEP LAYER
WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT WILL YIELD AN INCREASED
FIRE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH
WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN FAVORED TERRAIN, RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS
LOW AS 20% AND DRY FUELS WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN SC, CENTRAL NC AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VA. ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS WERE EXPANDED MORE INTO VA BASED ON RECENT
DRIER TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION.
..WILLIAMS.. 10/23/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1141 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
A DRY POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY DRY WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT FOR A PERIOD OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 30-35
PERCENT WILL OVERLAP WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10-15 MPH (GUSTING 30 MPH
IN A FEW LOCATIONS). THIS WILL BE THE SECOND DAY OF PRONOUNCED
DRYING OF FUELS AND LEAF FALL. RECENT FUELS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ERCS
ARE NEARING THE 75TH-80TH PERCENTILE FOR DRYNESS. OVERALL, ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE KEEPS WINDS LARGELY BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, THOUGH SOME
LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN MORE WIND FAVORED AREAS.
AS SUCH, AN ELEVATED RISK AREA WAS MAINTAINED WITH THIS OUTLOOK.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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