546
ACUS02 KWNS 231724
SWODY2
SPC AC 231722
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST/CENTRAL
TX...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MID-AFTERNOON
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW
TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR.
...SYNOPSIS..
A BROAD, POSITIVE-TILT MID/UPPER TROUGH CONSISTING OF MULTIPLE
EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ONTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THE PIECEMEAL NATURE OF THE TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT ONLY WEAK/DISJOINTED SURFACE LOW REFLECTIONS THAT
SHOULD SIMILARLY SLOWLY SHIFT FROM WEST TO CENTRAL TX. STILL, AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET TRANSLATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL FOSTER FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHIFTING
EAST OVER TX FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MORNING SATURDAY.
..TX
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AT 12Z
FRIDAY ACROSS KS/OK, WITH MORE ISOLATED/DIMINISHING STORMS TRAILING
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PARTS OF WEST TX. DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY-LAYER
HEATING IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING ACTIVITY SHOULD SUPPORT A WAVY
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE EASTWARD ALONG THE
RED RIVER VICINITY. A PLUME OF MODERATE MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG
SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED TO THE SOUTH OF THE EFFECTIVE FRONT
THROUGH THE TRANS-PECOS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE.
TIMING OF STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IN THE AFTERNOON IS
SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS, BUT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM EARLY AND BECOME WIDESPREAD LATE. A
MODERATELY FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF STEEPENED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS, MOST LIKELY ACROSS
THE TRANS-PECOS INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. AN AMALGAMATION OF
NUMEROUS INTERACTING UPDRAFTS SHOULD YIELD A LARGE MCS BY EVENING.
THIS MCS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING
SATURDAY AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY EAST TX. THE
OVERALL THREAT AREA WILL BECOME MORE NARROW OVERNIGHT, BUT ISOLATED
SEVERE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE MORE PREVALENT DURING THE INITIAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WEST TX, BUT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BROAD, LOW-PROBABILITY TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR/BAROCLINIC ZONE, WITH GREATER CHANCES ACROSS
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU VICINITY. SEVERE GUSTS/DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD
MAXIMIZE AS THE MCS MATURES ACROSS WEST INTO CENTRAL TX.
..GRAMS.. 10/23/2025
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