054
ACUS03 KWNS 231926
SWODY3
SPC AC 231925
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX
AND SOUTHWEST LA...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, CENTERED ON SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA.
..SYNOPSIS
A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THE PRIMARY OF MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES IS CONSISTENTLY PROGGED TO EJECT THROUGH THE BASAL PORTION
OF THE TROUGH, YIELDING A NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE-TILT BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.
..TX/LA
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z SATURDAY WITH
AN MCS ACROSS EAST TX AND TRAILING CONVECTION ALONG ITS OUTFLOW INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL TX. A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO
OR TWO SHOULD PERSIST INTO MIDDAY UNTIL THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS
OUTFLOW SHIFTS OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHWEST GULF. WHILE THE SOUTHWARD
PENETRATION OF TRAILING OUTFLOW IN SOUTH-CENTRAL TX IS UNCERTAIN,
AIRMASS RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY AS IT SLOWLY EBBS BACK NORTH AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
BASAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE. STRENGTHENING MID TO UPPER FLOW WILL FOSTER
A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING, WITHIN A CORRIDOR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW. POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ANOTHER MCS WITH BOWING CLUSTERS
ON SATURDAY NIGHT, SIMILARLY TRACKING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST GULF
COAST. THIS SETUP APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF A LEVEL 2-SLGT RISK FOR
MAINLY HAIL WEST EVOLVING TO MAINLY WIND DOWNSTREAM. THERE IS
CONCERN FOR AN OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING SUNDAY TORNADO THREAT WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE SABINE VALLEY INTO LA AS THE
MID/UPPER JETLET IMPINGES. THE DEGREE OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
IN THIS REGION LATE D3 WILL BE CRUCIAL TO HOW ROBUST TORNADO
POTENTIAL MAY BECOME.
..GRAMS.. 10/23/2025
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