249
ACUS02 KWNS 240558
SWODY2
SPC AC 240557
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.
..SYNOPSIS
A BROAD POSITIVE-TILT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL TX SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A STRONG EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE/JET WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND OVERSPREAD
ROBUST MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST AND LOWER MS VALLEY.
WHILE EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO COMPLICATE THE
FORECAST, A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
RENEWED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX AND LA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
..TX/LA
EARLY IN THE DAY, AN EXPANSIVE MCS IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING ACROSS
EAST/SOUTHEAST TX. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST, WITH AN ISOLATED WIND AND
TORNADO THREAT. IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS, OUTFLOW WILL STALL AND
GRADUALLY LIFT BACK NORTHWARD, ALLOWING FOR SOME AIR MASS RECOVERY
EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS FAR SOUTH TX. LOW 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS
AND STRONG HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE BUOYANCY BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE APPROACH OF THE BASAL SHORTWAVE AND MID-LEVEL JET
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH VEERING WIND PROFILES
AND 40+ KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FAVORING SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS. WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE RECOVERING OUTFLOW, THESE STORMS MAY BE ELEVATED ABOVE
THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD FAVOR A RISK MAINLY FOR LARGE HAIL GIVEN
COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
AS FORCING INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH, UPSCALE GROWTH
IS AGAIN EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AN MCS MAY
DEVELOP AND TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE REMNANT OUTFLOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN LA. A THREAT FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND A FEW
TORNADOES MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR REMAIN STOUT BENEATH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE
LOWER SABINE AND MS VALLEY. WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
DESTABILIZATION, BOUNDARY LAYER SEPARATION IS LIKELY TO BE DELAYED
WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OFF THE GULF OVERNIGHT.
..LYONS.. 10/24/2025
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